Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +20 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -8.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -8.1 (+11.9) | 145.2 (-19.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -8.2 (+11.8) | 144.5 (-18.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -7.9 (+12.1) | 145.0 (-19.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -7.7 (+12.3) | 146.4 (-20.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | ORST 78 – 75 ASU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ASU 79 – 61 ORST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ORST 84 – 71 ASU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ASU 63 – 57 ORST |
| Feb 3, 2023 | ASU 68 – 57 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 1-19 |
| Home | 9-6 | 3-13 |
| Away | 5-7 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#119) | -2.6 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#112) | -1.45 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#120) | -1.20 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#111) | 0.442 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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