Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR +140 PROV -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +1 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -5.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -3.8 (+2.8) | 134.4 (+6.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -4.3 (+3.3) | 135.1 (+5.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -4.1 (+3.1) | 136.3 (+4.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -4.4 (+3.4) | 134.0 (+7.0) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#137) | 10.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#86) | 3.58 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#85) | 3.78 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#143) | 0.635 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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