Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -20.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -23.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -19.1 (-17.1) | 153.1 (-19.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -19.4 (-17.4) | 152.9 (-18.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -21.0 (-19.0) | 155.0 (-21.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -20.3 (-18.3) | 155.6 (-21.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TOL 78 – 75 CMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOL 69 – 67 CMU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 TOL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TOL 99 – 65 CMU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | TOL 84 – 59 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 2-9 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#75) | -12.8 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#81) | -1.55 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#97) | -2.17 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#54) | 0.448 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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