Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +21 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -2.9 (+23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -2.0 (+23.0) | 139.3 (-16.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -1.1 (+22.1) | 142.6 (-19.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -1.6 (+22.6) | 142.4 (-19.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -0.8 (+21.8) | 141.9 (-18.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CSU 91 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CSU 70 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 23, 2025 | CSU 61 – 53 UNLV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CSU 84 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UNLV 66 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 25-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#99) | 11.0 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#96) | 2.98 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#91) | 3.20 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#97) | 0.623 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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