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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–14 on winners spread MAE 10.2 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Fresno State @ UNLV +1.2 151.2 51% 72–84 ✓
Omaha @ Lamar +3.7 138.2 67% 85–82 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Utah +9.8 154.4 81% 77–101 ✓
Portland State @ Tulane +1.9 143.5 62% 61–63 ✓
UC Riverside @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +12.3 145.6 86% 78–92 ✓
Sacramento State @ California Baptist +13.5 146.3 88% 67–74 ✓
Stanford @ Colorado +5.1 157.7 53% 77–68 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Rutgers +4.8 144.6 71% 69–70 ✓
Texas Tech @ Duke +12.2 145.9 82% 82–81 ✗
Xavier @ Georgetown +3.5 149.9 66% 80–77 ✗
Marquette @ Creighton +12.6 147.4 86% 63–84 ✓
San José State @ New Mexico +13.4 144.1 87% 65–88 ✓
Rice @ Pepperdine +1.8 137.6 54% 62–84 ✓
Utah Tech @ Weber State +7.5 151.1 76% 82–80 ✗
Boise State @ Nevada -1.7 142.2 48% 66–81 ✗
San Diego State @ Arizona +18.0 155.5 88% 45–68 ✓
Colgate @ Florida +20.4 150.6 89% 60–90 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Boston University +4.8 144.4 66% 76–88 ✓
Charleston @ Northern Kentucky +5.6 146.2 74% 85–74 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Penn State +3.6 144.9 57% 80–46 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest +0.0 160.4 41% 98–67 ✗
Lehigh @ Monmouth +6.9 144.6 71% 62–76 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Hofstra +7.3 145.5 73% 66–74 ✓
Southern @ Baylor +23.7 166.5 91% 67–111 ✓
Ole Miss @ NC State +11.6 146.3 82% 62–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ Marist +6.1 135.9 71% 51–70 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Alabama +21.5 175.4 90% 81–92 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso -5.6 153.7 33% 85–79 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +4.3 152.6 73% 69–73 ✓
Presbyterian @ Manhattan +0.7 132.8 48% 81–87 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Furman +5.3 148.5 71% 76–84 ✓
UIC @ Charlotte +4.2 136.3 65% 76–88 ✓
Maine @ Drexel +7.0 128.1 73% 56–74 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ George Mason +27.1 142.7 91% 79–86 ✓
Central Arkansas @ SMU +18.0 150.9 88% 82–99 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Notre Dame +18.2 146.5 88% 72–69 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Oklahoma State +15.7 168.9 88% 89–94 ✓
VMI @ Radford +9.0 152.2 82% 90–97 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Tennessee +32.9 148.3 91% 52–94 ✓
Cornell @ UAlbany -2.2 163.6 46% 83–75 ✓
Chattanooga @ Alabama A&M +5.6 135.6 70% 73–66 ✗
UNC Asheville @ UAB +13.0 146.2 85% 47–72 ✓
UMBC @ South Florida +18.7 151.9 88% 69–94 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Incarnate Word +5.6 135.7 72% 66–90 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona State +14.0 146.6 87% 78–75 ✗
New Hampshire @ Saint Louis +33.3 145.5 90% 79–93 ✓
Cincinnati @ Clemson +8.6 139.9 81% 65–68 ✓
La Salle @ Michigan +32.9 145.1 91% 50–102 ✓
Drake @ Evansville -5.7 144.7 35% 66–65 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M +20.6 154.7 90% 77–118 ✓
Florida A&M @ TCU +26.8 140.7 91% 56–80 ✓
North Florida @ Miami +33.0 158.8 91% 67–105 ✓
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State -0.4 149.6 49% 78–87 ✗
UConn @ DePaul -9.7 136.6 19% 72–54 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State +17.0 147.5 88% 65–85 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Wichita State +14.0 141.3 87% 57–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State -4.9 154.1 33% 81–71 ✓
Columbia @ California +9.2 142.9 80% 56–74 ✓
Long Beach State @ Iowa State +33.2 153.4 91% 60–91 ✓
Gonzaga @ Oregon -9.3 152.2 18% 91–82 ✓
Campbell @ Minnesota +12.5 142.1 86% 50–78 ✓
UC Davis @ Idaho State +9.1 139.3 81% 93–83 ✗
Morgan State @ San Francisco +20.5 143.2 91% 64–94 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.