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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–20 on winners spread MAE 8.6 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois +4.5 145.4 68% 83–79 ✗
Columbia @ Yale +17.5 159.6 89% 64–90 ✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +11.2 146.4 86% 71–60 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion +0.0 151.7 47% 76–70 ✗
William & Mary @ Elon +4.4 146.0 67% 79–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State -7.5 138.2 25% 58–56 ✓
Portland @ Pacific +3.5 147.9 60% 81–73 ✗
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +6.3 143.9 80% 72–80 ✓
Duke @ Illinois -6.7 149.7 32% 110–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Missouri State -1.8 140.0 37% 70–68 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +5.9 139.4 79% 71–79 ✓
Dartmouth @ Princeton +4.6 143.7 67% 76–61 ✗
Sacramento State @ Idaho State +10.5 136.1 83% 66–83 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +10.9 155.8 84% 74–92 ✓
Butler @ DePaul -1.8 145.2 45% 84–72 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss +3.4 145.8 62% 62–60 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +7.0 137.3 71% 57–67 ✓
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +6.8 147.7 79% 64–66 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Oral Roberts -8.0 156.0 26% 66–71 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +1.9 142.9 65% 63–64 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +5.7 168.0 76% 85–93 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +6.2 142.7 66% 74–67 ✗
Missouri @ Arkansas +1.5 147.2 57% 85–92 ✓
Texas @ South Carolina -3.4 142.5 40% 69–84 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -5.5 139.9 28% 68–82 ✗
Montana @ Montana State +1.8 146.3 55% 89–85 ✗
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +6.1 146.1 76% 82–93 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -8.3 139.3 21% 73–64 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV -0.2 138.9 51% 61–53 ✓
California @ Stanford +5.3 148.9 73% 61–66 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego +16.4 136.3 89% 44–83 ✓
BYU @ Arizona +7.5 149.9 77% 96–95 ✗
UConn @ St. John's +6.8 139.3 77% 75–89 ✓
North Texas @ South Florida -6.8 131.4 17% 64–57 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +5.3 151.1 75% 53–84 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -0.9 142.7 46% 65–84 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +6.5 146.9 79% 67–71 ✓
Merrimack @ Iona +0.0 132.4 51% 77–70 ✗
Purdue @ Indiana -1.9 145.2 48% 58–73 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis +10.4 160.7 85% 65–84 ✓
Tulane @ Wichita State +4.5 143.5 74% 67–78 ✓
UTSA @ East Carolina +5.0 149.4 71% 89–96 ✓
Temple @ UAB +6.5 163.1 75% 64–80 ✓
Holy Cross @ Navy +3.4 136.9 68% 77–83 ✓
Xavier @ Seton Hall -11.4 138.4 15% 73–66 ✓
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris +1.2 146.6 64% 59–72 ✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +12.3 149.9 88% 77–81 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +11.4 144.4 86% 65–70 ✓
Canisius @ Siena +14.3 143.4 88% 93–88 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan +0.4 154.4 50% 74–71 ✗
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +6.0 137.3 75% 72–79 ✓
Niagara @ Marist +7.9 134.9 78% 61–64 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Peter's +0.2 138.1 52% 79–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +0.3 136.4 48% 86–91 ✓
Ohio State @ UCLA +4.7 139.1 75% 61–69 ✓
Utah @ UCF +0.7 156.0 60% 72–76 ✓
Arizona State @ Kansas State +3.6 145.9 65% 66–54 ✗
Drake @ Northern Iowa +0.3 129.1 40% 64–58 ✗
Georgetown @ Creighton +9.2 143.1 81% 69–80 ✓
USC @ Rutgers +0.6 153.9 58% 85–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.