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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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57–16 on winners spread MAE 10.3 73 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Omaha @ James Madison +4.8 162.6 67% 77–88 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina Upstate +17.7 147.2 95% 67–82 ✓
Boston University @ Penn State +15.2 147.2 92% 87–96 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Florida State +29.1 162.5 100% 59–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Villanova +19.0 143.1 96% 75–89 ✓
Wright State @ Stetson -2.7 146.6 40% 79–62 ✓
Rice @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.2 163.2 85% 63–78 ✓
Houston Christian @ Bellarmine +3.6 140.8 63% 69–74 ✓
Hampton @ Maryland Eastern Shore -0.4 120.8 49% 74–68 ✓
Chicago State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +8.7 153.0 78% 77–90 ✓
Quinnipiac @ UCF +12.9 161.0 88% 91–102 ✓
Campbell @ Wake Forest +14.9 163.3 91% 51–99 ✓
Lehigh @ Marist +13.6 126.9 89% 55–78 ✓
Coppin State @ Rider +7.5 143.5 75% 68–65 ✗
George Mason @ Florida Atlantic -1.2 154.1 46% 74–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Central Arkansas +4.7 139.0 67% 60–81 ✓
Murray State @ George Washington +10.1 175.1 82% 96–95 ✗
Temple @ Princeton -5.1 154.6 32% 79–75 ✓
Kansas State @ Indiana +9.5 163.4 81% 69–86 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas A&M +29.8 159.2 100% 84–120 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Cal Poly +6.4 165.9 72% 84–68 ✗
South Carolina State @ Missouri +33.9 159.8 100% 66–98 ✓
Eastern Washington @ North Texas +8.3 141.7 77% 71–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Austin Peay +15.3 143.9 92% 59–77 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State +6.4 159.5 72% 94–100 ✓
Auburn @ Michigan +7.1 167.0 74% 72–102 ✓
Winthrop @ Nebraska +8.7 163.7 79% 73–80 ✓
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine -2.8 148.8 40% 57–45 ✓
UTSA @ Georgia Southern +7.3 156.3 75% 77–64 ✗
Oakland @ Montana +6.1 174.3 71% 95–87 ✗
Portland State @ Utah Tech +0.4 159.0 51% 68–63 ✗
Maryland @ Gonzaga +23.1 148.3 98% 61–100 ✓
Ole Miss @ Iowa +8.3 151.0 77% 69–74 ✓
UCLA @ California -2.5 142.9 41% 72–80 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon -2.0 145.7 43% 97–80 ✓
UNLV @ Alabama +13.4 188.7 89% 76–115 ✓
Utah @ Grand Canyon +4.1 165.8 65% 58–68 ✓
Saint Francis @ Troy +26.4 168.5 99% 64–74 ✓
Bowling Green @ VMI -16.1 154.1 7% 81–48 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Western Kentucky -11.8 176.6 14% 83–78 ✓
Towson @ UC San Diego +2.0 135.1 57% 73–87 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Stonehill +13.7 152.5 89% 75–64 ✗
Syracuse @ Iowa State +8.2 148.9 77% 64–95 ✓
New Orleans @ Texas Tech +10.5 155.7 83% 50–82 ✓
Brown @ New Hampshire +1.8 132.0 56% 59–47 ✗
Belmont @ Toledo -6.7 152.5 27% 87–72 ✓
Buffalo @ Bucknell -12.1 146.0 14% 73–71 ✓
San José State @ Loyola Chicago -6.4 140.7 28% 63–51 ✓
Miami (OH) @ UNC Greensboro -11.7 161.5 14% 82–71 ✓
Omaha @ Florida International +7.4 163.1 75% 61–74 ✓
App State @ Mercer +17.0 148.8 94% 67–75 ✓
UIC @ Robert Morris +5.3 152.2 68% 74–88 ✓
Wofford @ Northern Kentucky +9.8 149.3 81% 83–93 ✓
Army @ Fairleigh Dickinson +7.4 158.4 75% 81–73 ✗
USC @ Arizona State -9.0 169.4 21% 88–75 ✓
Liberty @ Bradley -7.8 152.4 24% 64–74 ✗
South Florida @ VCU -2.2 176.9 42% 66–78 ✗
North Dakota State @ Jacksonville State -6.6 141.0 27% 56–43 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Valparaiso +14.3 147.7 90% 64–56 ✗
Georgia State @ New Mexico State +15.4 144.3 92% 58–77 ✓
Notre Dame @ Houston +7.5 134.4 75% 56–66 ✓
Lipscomb @ Marshall +14.7 154.7 91% 90–67 ✗
Navy @ Gardner-Webb -15.9 157.5 7% 84–51 ✓
Harvard @ Boston College +6.3 133.0 72% 60–73 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Tulsa +5.9 136.9 70% 60–63 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Rice -3.3 157.1 38% 62–81 ✗
Vermont @ Princeton -10.1 158.7 18% 79–74 ✓
Wagner @ Manhattan -4.5 161.6 34% 103–101 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Colorado State -1.0 169.4 46% 66–64 ✓
Seton Hall @ Washington State -12.7 144.3 12% 75–61 ✓
Samford @ Utah Valley +8.2 155.7 77% 45–89 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force -3.0 152.5 39% 71–53 ✓
Sam Houston @ Idaho State +1.4 143.4 55% 84–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.