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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–15 on winners
spread MAE 12.7
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas
@
Tennessee
|
+1.7 | 142.2 | 56% | 81–76 | ✗ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Kentucky
|
+25.1 | 150.3 | 99% | 54–104 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
The Citadel
|
-5.3 | 142.9 | 32% | 72–65 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
Fresno State
|
+1.3 | 149.3 | 55% | 53–76 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
UNC Wilmington
|
+15.0 | 132.3 | 91% | 57–70 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
+8.2 | 182.1 | 77% | 102–100 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Cincinnati
|
+15.5 | 135.6 | 92% | 64–56 | ✗ |
Columbia
@
Fairfield
|
+3.0 | 145.2 | 61% | 106–77 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
Temple
|
-7.8 | 152.9 | 24% | 90–75 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
Louisiana Tech
|
-2.1 | 121.0 | 42% | 73–75 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Auburn
|
-10.2 | 174.7 | 18% | 74–85 | ✗ |
Saint Mary's
@
Wichita State
|
-3.0 | 143.6 | 39% | 70–65 | ✓ |
Southern Illinois
@
Memphis
|
+4.0 | 161.7 | 64% | 58–74 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Northern Arizona
|
+1.5 | 157.6 | 56% | 72–79 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
UC Irvine
|
-2.9 | 138.3 | 40% | 52–64 | ✗ |
Denver
@
Wyoming
|
+11.3 | 163.6 | 85% | 59–101 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Louisville
|
+32.6 | 157.0 | 100% | 47–104 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
New Mexico
|
+14.1 | 145.2 | 90% | 87–93 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Cal State Northridge
|
-4.7 | 163.5 | 33% | 78–64 | ✓ |
Gonzaga
@
Michigan
|
-1.7 | 154.3 | 44% | 61–101 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Texas
|
-9.1 | 166.0 | 20% | 97–102 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Grand Canyon
|
-13.7 | 146.6 | 11% | 59–46 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Portland
|
+4.5 | 147.3 | 66% | 73–93 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
San Diego State
|
-2.1 | 166.3 | 42% | 91–81 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Alabama
|
+20.8 | 170.4 | 97% | 72–105 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Ole Miss
|
+11.2 | 157.8 | 85% | 75–74 | ✗ |
Richmond
@
Furman
|
-9.6 | 148.8 | 19% | 72–73 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Vanderbilt
|
+2.9 | 164.0 | 60% | 74–89 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
East Carolina
|
-14.3 | 153.3 | 10% | 67–58 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Illinois State
|
+5.3 | 138.5 | 68% | 69–79 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
Creighton
|
+6.5 | 146.2 | 72% | 66–76 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Colorado
|
-0.1 | 164.5 | 50% | 69–79 | ✗ |
Saint Mary's
@
Virginia Tech
|
-4.2 | 153.1 | 35% | 77–66 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Florida
|
+9.5 | 145.6 | 81% | 84–80 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
North Carolina
|
+1.0 | 144.7 | 54% | 74–58 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Rutgers
|
-3.1 | 160.8 | 39% | 65–80 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
Washington
|
+4.3 | 150.4 | 65% | 66–83 | ✓ |
BYU
@
Miami
|
-0.2 | 163.8 | 49% | 72–62 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Western Kentucky
|
-5.2 | 174.4 | 32% | 97–91 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Wisconsin
|
+3.9 | 180.0 | 64% | 83–104 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.