Betting Lines
| Spread | COLU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLU +29 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -2.7 (-31.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.9 (-30.9) | 140.8 (+42.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -4.1 (-33.1) | 142.2 (+40.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -3.2 (-32.2) | 142.5 (+40.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -3.2 (-32.2) | 142.4 (+40.6) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 28, 2024 | COLU 85 – 72 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#162) | 3.5 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#73) | 1.87 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#75) | 2.51 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#110) | 0.570 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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