Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -245 PROV +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +21 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -3.1 (+17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -3.7 (+17.3) | 163.7 (+23.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -2.4 (+18.6) | 162.7 (+24.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -1.0 (+20.0) | 164.5 (+22.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -1.1 (+19.9) | 166.0 (+21.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2023 | PROV 72 – 59 WIS |
| Nov 16, 2021 | PROV 63 – 58 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#53) | 7.3 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#92) | 1.91 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#90) | 3.43 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#71) | 0.605 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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