Betting Lines
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -102 SF -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -0.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -0.6 (+9.4) | 155.0 (-7.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -1.4 (+8.6) | 152.2 (-4.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -1.0 (+9.0) | 151.7 (-3.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -2.4 (+7.6) | 150.6 (-2.6) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#85) | 5.6 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#30) | 0.60 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#25) | 0.73 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#36) | 0.548 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 42.2% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 41.8% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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