Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +23 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -1.4 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -0.4 (+22.6) | 143.2 (-14.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.6 (+21.4) | 141.3 (-12.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -1.6 (+21.4) | 142.9 (-13.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -2.0 (+21.0) | 144.9 (-15.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2021 | FRES 70 – 63 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 7-10 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#147) | 0.1 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#149) | -0.59 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#96) | 0.49 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#160) | 0.473 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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