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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
32–11 on winners
spread MAE 9.7
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Santa Clara
@
Saint Louis
|
-2.7 | 159.1 | 40% | 70–71 | ✗ |
Georgetown
@
Dayton
|
+0.3 | 149.3 | 51% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Arkansas
|
-16.7 | 159.4 | 6% | 80–71 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
Colorado State
|
-3.0 | 147.9 | 39% | 70–76 | ✗ |
Stanford
@
Minnesota
|
-2.5 | 144.8 | 41% | 72–68 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Northwestern
|
+9.6 | 160.4 | 81% | 86–81 | ✗ |
Virginia Tech
@
VCU
|
+3.2 | 153.1 | 61% | 68–86 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Purdue
|
+32.7 | 139.4 | 100% | 62–109 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Gardner-Webb
|
-9.5 | 142.3 | 19% | 76–68 | ✓ |
Northeastern
@
Wake Forest
|
+19.0 | 148.5 | 96% | 73–86 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
UConn
|
-1.2 | 154.2 | 46% | 61–74 | ✗ |
Richmond
@
Charlotte
|
-5.9 | 152.3 | 30% | 71–66 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Vanderbilt
|
+2.1 | 158.7 | 58% | 71–96 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Siena
|
+9.8 | 156.6 | 81% | 63–70 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Nevada
|
-3.1 | 149.5 | 39% | 65–81 | ✗ |
Indiana State
@
Alcorn State
|
-10.8 | 149.4 | 16% | 74–81 | ✗ |
Cleveland State
@
Missouri
|
+31.4 | 178.9 | 100% | 59–86 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Seattle U
|
+11.8 | 136.8 | 86% | 52–66 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
Robert Morris
|
+23.3 | 165.6 | 98% | 54–61 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Marquette
|
-6.2 | 164.7 | 29% | 75–74 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Ball State
|
-9.8 | 132.9 | 19% | 80–73 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
La Salle
|
-7.9 | 143.8 | 24% | 63–58 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Butler
|
+14.5 | 146.2 | 91% | 69–94 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Florida
|
+10.8 | 173.7 | 84% | 78–90 | ✓ |
Furman
@
Illinois State
|
+7.7 | 136.2 | 76% | 65–72 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Arkansas State
|
+1.1 | 154.9 | 54% | 80–85 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Tulane
|
+4.4 | 155.2 | 66% | 72–82 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Youngstown State
|
+15.6 | 153.2 | 92% | 64–87 | ✓ |
Navy
@
UNC Wilmington
|
+4.8 | 138.9 | 67% | 57–87 | ✓ |
Maine
@
American University
|
+9.7 | 137.2 | 81% | 61–74 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+16.6 | 136.4 | 93% | 55–73 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Davidson
|
+10.7 | 145.2 | 84% | 74–90 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
South Carolina
|
+17.3 | 159.1 | 94% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Virginia
|
+18.6 | 166.6 | 95% | 69–94 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
South Florida
|
+3.7 | 171.3 | 63% | 83–68 | ✗ |
Washington
@
Colorado
|
-1.6 | 160.4 | 44% | 68–81 | ✗ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Lehigh
|
-7.1 | 159.8 | 26% | 72–70 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Lafayette
|
+0.7 | 160.0 | 53% | 76–63 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
Pennsylvania
|
+11.1 | 152.1 | 84% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Florida State
|
+11.7 | 170.2 | 86% | 95–59 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
TCU
|
-3.0 | 159.5 | 39% | 63–74 | ✗ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Xavier
|
+11.2 | 140.0 | 85% | 67–88 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Idaho State
|
+4.6 | 153.3 | 66% | 50–82 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.