Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -148 VT +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +18 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -3.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -4.5 (+13.5) | 151.0 (+3.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -2.7 (+15.3) | 145.8 (+8.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -2.3 (+15.7) | 147.2 (+6.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -1.9 (+16.1) | 149.1 (+4.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#46) | 8.3 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#90) | 2.14 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#70) | 3.35 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#106) | 0.626 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 11.5% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.5% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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