Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | MINN +120 STAN -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -2.7 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -0.3 (-4.3) | 138.8 (+1.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -1.0 (-3.0) | 139.1 (+0.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -0.6 (-3.4) | 141.9 (-1.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -0.4 (-3.6) | 141.4 (-1.4) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#141) | 4.5 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#182) | -0.19 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#184) | -0.09 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#240) | 0.499 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 36.3% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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