Betting Lines
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | LEH +440 UCSB -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -6.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.8 (+2.8) | 144.0 (-2.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -6.9 (+4.9) | 140.5 (+1.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -4.9 (+2.9) | 144.2 (-2.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.8 (+2.8) | 146.0 (-4.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEH | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#299) | -1.5 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#322) | 0.07 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.71 (#329) | -0.29 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#294) | 0.501 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEH | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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