Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -1350 AMCC +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +21 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -10.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -10.4 (+10.6) | 138.0 (+17.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -9.3 (+11.7) | 137.2 (+17.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -10.0 (+11.0) | 137.7 (+17.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -9.4 (+11.6) | 141.2 (+13.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#109) | -1.0 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#134) | -0.87 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#87) | -0.98 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#60) | 0.511 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 39.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 41.6% |
Game Analysis
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