Betting Lines
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -1200 NCAT +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +16 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -9.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -8.7 (+7.3) | 141.6 (+22.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -7.1 (+8.9) | 142.9 (+21.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -8.4 (+7.6) | 144.0 (+20.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -7.4 (+8.6) | 143.0 (+21.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 6-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#131) | -1.6 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#52) | -0.24 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#59) | -0.55 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#20) | 0.423 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 35.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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