Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +32 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -5.9 (+26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.6 (+30.4) | 142.5 (-10.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -3.4 (+28.6) | 142.1 (-10.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -2.8 (+29.2) | 142.8 (-10.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -4.1 (+27.9) | 143.3 (-11.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 80.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#147) | -4.5 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#194) | 0.49 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#182) | 0.32 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#158) | 0.495 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 62.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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