Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -345 ME +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -8.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -7.6 (+5.4) | 134.8 (+0.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | AMER -6.1 (+6.9) | 136.9 (-1.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | AMER -4.8 (+8.2) | 135.6 (-0.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -6.2 (+6.8) | 135.9 (-0.9) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 4-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#242) | -7.3 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#209) | -3.74 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#188) | -5.71 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#183) | 0.328 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.0% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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