Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +11 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -2.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -1.8 (+12.8) | 151.3 (-14.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -0.7 (+11.7) | 146.8 (-9.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -0.8 (+11.8) | 150.2 (-13.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -1.1 (+9.9) | 149.4 (-12.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#54) | 13.3 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#132) | 2.11 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#104) | 3.51 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#209) | 0.613 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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