The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–20 on winners spread MAE 9.9 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Miami @ Georgetown -13.2 153.8 11% 78–65 ✓
Wichita State @ Western Kentucky -3.2 155.8 39% 70–75 ✗
Stanford @ Saint Louis +8.5 163.5 78% 78–77 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Clemson +25.5 142.8 99% 56–92 ✓
Georgia Tech @ DePaul -1.3 139.5 45% 61–75 ✗
SMU @ Mississippi State -4.4 164.6 34% 87–81 ✓
Ohio State @ Pittsburgh -4.3 144.5 35% 66–67 ✗
Colgate @ UAlbany -11.1 150.5 16% 69–67 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana +11.8 144.1 86% 51–45 ✗
Sam Houston @ Idaho -0.2 155.1 49% 94–68 ✓
BYU @ Dayton -14.7 154.9 9% 83–79 ✓
Minnesota @ Santa Clara +12.9 135.2 88% 75–86 ✓
LSU @ Drake -15.4 157.5 8% 71–62 ✓
Stony Brook @ Loyola Marymount +10.8 134.6 84% 71–68 ✗
North Dakota @ Hawai'i +15.8 139.2 92% 55–92 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Indiana +22.9 147.8 98% 56–100 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Navy +7.0 134.4 74% 69–65 ✗
Alcorn State @ Louisiana Tech +7.4 131.4 75% 58–83 ✓
Manhattan @ Army +4.6 166.0 66% 78–81 ✓
VMI @ UCF +27.7 164.5 99% 57–82 ✓
Boston University @ Northern Kentucky +8.0 158.0 77% 65–74 ✓
Maine @ Longwood +0.3 140.1 51% 61–65 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Niagara +4.4 151.9 65% 70–66 ✗
Dartmouth @ Saint Peter's +12.3 159.5 87% 87–61 ✗
Lehigh @ Texas State +0.8 132.5 53% 78–74 ✗
Houston Christian @ Georgia Southern +4.2 144.1 65% 62–80 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Nebraska +20.6 159.3 97% 63–72 ✓
Southern @ Northwestern State -1.8 183.1 44% 75–73 ✓
Merrimack @ Hofstra +8.0 140.3 77% 58–78 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Georgia +28.7 161.0 100% 81–123 ✓
Western Carolina @ High Point +24.9 163.9 99% 73–93 ✓
James Madison @ George Mason +15.5 147.1 92% 66–82 ✓
Delaware State @ UMBC +18.5 129.9 95% 57–71 ✓
Monmouth @ Le Moyne -3.8 151.6 36% 79–83 ✗
Southern Utah @ Stetson +3.9 153.7 64% 70–68 ✗
Morehead State @ IU Indianapolis +7.2 188.1 75% 80–85 ✓
Bryant @ Harvard +14.3 135.5 90% 53–56 ✓
Lipscomb @ Southeast Missouri State +2.4 154.5 58% 88–77 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington -1.8 139.0 43% 61–66 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Wilmington +28.5 148.9 100% 62–88 ✓
Western Michigan @ Valparaiso +3.0 141.0 61% 55–84 ✓
Norfolk State @ Arizona +22.1 133.5 98% 61–98 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Drake -1.5 136.3 44% 74–84 ✗
South Carolina State @ Winthrop +31.7 153.9 100% 79–101 ✓
Kansas City @ Weber State +17.0 161.2 94% 61–82 ✓
Montana State @ Utah State +17.5 144.7 94% 81–84 ✓
Central Arkansas @ East Tennessee State +16.8 143.2 94% 57–80 ✓
Mercer @ Elon +7.7 177.1 76% 91–84 ✗
Siena @ American University +1.6 146.2 56% 59–55 ✗
Howard @ Mount St. Mary's +0.0 143.1 50% 75–79 ✓
Air Force @ South Dakota -0.9 151.0 47% 63–80 ✗
Seattle U @ UC Santa Barbara -8.1 154.2 23% 71–74 ✗
Ball State @ Lafayette +2.4 143.1 59% 37–55 ✓
La Salle @ Pennsylvania +10.7 145.3 83% 71–73 ✓
Wofford @ Eastern Kentucky +2.4 155.0 59% 83–77 ✗
UC Riverside @ Utah Tech +1.4 145.4 55% 69–77 ✓
Pepperdine @ Cal State Fullerton +6.9 166.7 73% 69–83 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Penn State +17.1 162.7 94% 59–90 ✓
Buffalo @ Canisius -10.2 141.9 18% 71–53 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.