Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -1050 DSU +675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +14 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -18.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -11.1 (+2.9) | 128.5 (-0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -11.9 (+2.1) | 130.8 (-2.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -13.8 (+0.2) | 130.9 (-2.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -14.0 (+0.0) | 131.7 (-3.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 2-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 9-6 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#254) | -18.2 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#162) | -2.53 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#188) | -4.14 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#184) | 0.325 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 32.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 37.0% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 62.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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