Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +7 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -7.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -6.7 (-13.7) | 160.9 (+14.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ELON -6.6 (-13.6) | 162.3 (+12.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | ELON -6.3 (-13.3) | 159.1 (+15.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -7.0 (-14.0) | 160.9 (+14.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#135) | 0.3 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#116) | 0.59 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#148) | 0.81 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#176) | 0.522 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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