Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -3200 GWEB +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +26 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -28.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -24.2 (+1.8) | 143.1 (+6.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -24.2 (+1.8) | 142.7 (+7.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -27.9 (-1.9) | 142.7 (+7.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -28.9 (-2.9) | 142.9 (+7.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 4-29 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 1-15 |
| Home | 15-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 12-2 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 86.7 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#97) | -17.7 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#117) | -3.22 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#155) | -5.14 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#114) | 0.356 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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