Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | LT -1650 ALCN +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +25 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | LT -7.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -8.2 (+16.8) | 132.7 (+8.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -4.5 (+20.5) | 130.5 (+10.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -5.0 (+20.0) | 129.7 (+11.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -6.1 (+18.9) | 133.2 (+7.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#304) | -10.2 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#219) | -0.90 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#230) | -1.12 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#284) | 0.459 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 17.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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