Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UTU -250 UCR +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -1.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -2.6 (+5.4) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UCR -0.1 (+8.1) | 142.8 (+3.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UTU -2.1 (+5.9) | 141.2 (+4.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -2.1 (+5.9) | 142.0 (+4.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#265) | -1.9 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#293) | 0.44 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#288) | 1.28 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#237) | 0.547 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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