Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -310 BU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -7.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -7.6 (+1.4) | 144.8 (-5.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | NKU -7.4 (+1.6) | 143.9 (-4.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | NKU -6.8 (+2.2) | 147.4 (-8.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -7.7 (+1.3) | 150.6 (-11.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#163) | -1.4 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#103) | -0.00 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#131) | -1.96 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#92) | 0.515 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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