Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | HOF -238 MRMK +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -7.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -5.5 (+14.5) | 138.8 (-2.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -5.5 (+14.5) | 134.8 (+1.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -4.6 (+15.4) | 136.4 (-0.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -5.4 (+14.6) | 137.4 (-1.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-0 |
| Away | 9-8 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#144) | -6.0 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#173) | -0.51 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#184) | -0.94 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#129) | 0.430 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 56.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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