← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DePaul
@
LSU
|
+11.8 | 156.4 | 86% | 63–96 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
Southern Illinois
|
+20.7 | 151.1 | 97% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Akron
|
+23.4 | 174.5 | 98% | 81–105 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
Fordham
|
+1.4 | 122.3 | 55% | 68–88 | ✓ |
Sacramento State
@
Pacific
|
+19.1 | 141.6 | 96% | 54–68 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Oregon State
|
-6.1 | 139.8 | 29% | 75–69 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Ball State
|
-9.2 | 139.0 | 20% | 85–96 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
La Salle
|
+3.0 | 133.5 | 61% | 66–60 | ✗ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Princeton
|
+2.9 | 149.7 | 60% | 60–58 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Maine
|
-9.4 | 118.7 | 20% | 64–60 | ✓ |
App State
@
UNC Asheville
|
+5.3 | 136.6 | 68% | 55–67 | ✓ |
South Alabama
@
UTSA
|
+0.8 | 140.2 | 53% | 82–58 | ✗ |
Tennessee State
@
Chattanooga
|
-4.4 | 154.1 | 35% | 70–64 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
William & Mary
|
+16.9 | 162.5 | 94% | 75–88 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
Robert Morris
|
+14.9 | 149.6 | 91% | 62–80 | ✓ |
New Hampshire
@
Fairfield
|
+16.6 | 143.8 | 93% | 68–72 | ✓ |
Stonehill
@
Quinnipiac
|
+17.3 | 148.5 | 94% | 62–76 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Vermont
|
-4.3 | 171.5 | 35% | 77–74 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Bucknell
|
-1.6 | 163.8 | 44% | 101–72 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Lafayette
|
-3.6 | 146.6 | 37% | 88–74 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Pennsylvania
|
-0.2 | 151.8 | 49% | 77–60 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Texas Tech
|
+6.6 | 148.1 | 73% | 72–76 | ✓ |
Mercyhurst
@
West Virginia
|
+12.7 | 120.5 | 88% | 38–70 | ✓ |
Fordham
@
Colgate
|
+6.3 | 135.3 | 72% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+12.3 | 138.5 | 87% | 60–67 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+10.1 | 157.5 | 82% | 70–65 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Charleston
|
-4.9 | 146.5 | 33% | 96–73 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
North Texas
|
+10.0 | 139.0 | 82% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
American University
|
+9.5 | 159.6 | 81% | 66–92 | ✓ |
Presbyterian
@
The Citadel
|
-6.7 | 140.0 | 27% | 69–41 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
San José State
|
+0.8 | 128.9 | 53% | 72–63 | ✗ |
San Diego
@
Long Beach State
|
+5.0 | 150.4 | 67% | 72–76 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Fresno State
|
+10.9 | 143.4 | 84% | 76–71 | ✗ |
Coppin State
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+17.3 | 139.6 | 94% | 84–95 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.