Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | COFC +136 BEL -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +23 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -4.8 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -3.5 (-19.5) | 141.0 (+28.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -1.5 (-21.5) | 142.4 (+26.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -2.7 (-20.3) | 143.2 (+25.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -0.0 (-23.0) | 141.9 (+27.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 26-6 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#181) | 9.3 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#215) | 2.71 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#198) | 3.82 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#219) | 0.572 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 52.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 61.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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