Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | PENN +110 HOF -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +17 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | HOF -0.8 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -1.2 (-15.8) | 149.1 (-12.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -2.2 (-19.2) | 145.2 (-8.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -1.0 (-18.0) | 145.6 (-8.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -0.7 (-17.7) | 148.6 (-11.6) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#211) | 3.6 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#174) | 0.44 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#174) | 0.46 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#192) | 0.527 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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