Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +24 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -0.8 (-24.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -0.6 (-24.6) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UTSA -0.7 (-24.7) | 135.3 (+4.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UTSA -0.9 (-24.9) | 137.3 (+2.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -1.2 (-25.2) | 136.6 (+3.4) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 2-12 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#266) | -1.6 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#224) | 1.88 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#255) | 1.96 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#307) | 0.548 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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