I know you're dissatisfied with your position and your place. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Sojka Pavilion · November 30, 2025
Betting Lines
O/U 159.5 Over
Money BUCK +195 / COR -238
Model Predictions
Spread Total BUCK win
Actual COR +29 173 Lost
Massey COR -1.8 (-27.2)
Massey Totals 164.2 (+8.8)
Bradley-Terry 46%
Weighted B-T 61%
Baseline Plus ML BUCK -0.7 (-29.7) 152.5 (+20.5) 49%
Model 4 ML COR -1.4 (-27.6) 157.5 (+15.5) 40%
Model 3 ML COR -0.6 (-28.4) 152.5 (+20.5) 46%
Baseline ML COR -1.5 (-27.5) 150.1 (+22.9) 44%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BUCK COR
Overall 10-23 15-13
Conference 6-12 8-6
Home 6-8 7-4
Away 4-13 8-8
Neutral 0-2 0-1
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.4 85.8
Avg Pts Against 76.3 84.6
Massey -7.0 (#274) 0.3 (#166)
Bradley-Terry -1.19 (#280) 0.07 (#180)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.51 (#262) -0.69 (#218)
RPI 0.447 (#259) 0.530 (#128)
Shooting & Four Factors BUCK COR
FG% 40.7% 46.8%
3PT% 33.9% 37.7%
REB / G 32.8 38.6
OREB / G 9.1 10.0
AST / TO 0.82 1.32
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.9% 56.8%
TOV% 21.2% 18.2%
ORB% 26.5% 26.6%
FT Rate 26.7% 27.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.3% 52.4%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 14.3%
DRB% 67.7% 74.1%
Opp FT Rate 29.0% 25.8%

Game Analysis

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