Betting Lines
| Spread | SIE -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | ME +425 SIE -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIE +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | SIE -9.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIE -7.5 (+3.5) | 124.2 (-0.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIE -6.2 (+2.2) | 121.3 (+2.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIE -8.6 (+4.6) | 121.5 (+2.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIE -7.2 (+3.2) | 124.1 (-0.1) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 4-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#307) | 1.3 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.93 (#362) | 0.59 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.52 (#356) | 0.78 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.317 (#356) | 0.494 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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