Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -575 COPP +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +11 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -17.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+37.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -10.8 (+0.2) | 141.4 (+37.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -11.8 (-0.8) | 137.5 (+41.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -12.0 (-1.0) | 138.9 (+40.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -13.7 (-2.7) | 139.6 (+39.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2024 | L-MD 68 – 57 COPP |
| Dec 3, 2022 | COPP 74 – 71 L-MD |
| Nov 18, 2021 | COPP 71 – 49 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 3-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#288) | -19.3 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#328) | -2.05 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.36 (#322) | -3.55 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#325) | 0.378 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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