Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +22 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | COPP -0.5 (+21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -1.8 (+23.8) | 143.6 (-23.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -1.3 (+23.3) | 139.9 (-19.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -0.0 (+22.0) | 140.5 (-20.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COPP -0.4 (+21.6) | 144.1 (-24.1) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | L-MD 95 – 84 COPP |
| Dec 3, 2024 | L-MD 68 – 57 COPP |
| Dec 3, 2022 | COPP 74 – 71 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 3-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-16 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#325) | 0.7 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#305) | -0.90 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#313) | -1.33 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#219) | 0.488 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 17.0% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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