Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | BALL +105 LEM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +11 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -8.8 (+19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+45.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -5.1 (+16.1) | 132.6 (+48.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -6.3 (+17.3) | 132.6 (+48.4) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -8.4 (+19.4) | 132.0 (+49.0) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -6.5 (+17.5) | 132.7 (+48.3) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#347) | -5.3 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#349) | -0.76 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.86 (#347) | -1.47 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.253 (#365) | 0.455 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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