The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
The Super Pit · November 30, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNT -16.5 Away covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money UNT -2100 / PV +1100
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNT win
Actual UNT +3 141 Won
Massey UNT -10.7 (-7.7)
Massey Totals 141.2 (-0.2)
Bradley-Terry 80%
Weighted B-T 77%
Efficiency Plus ML UNT -12.2 (-9.2) 137.0 (+4.0) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML UNT -7.1 (-4.1) 134.3 (+6.7) 77%
Baseline ML UNT -7.7 (-4.7) 134.9 (+6.1) 79%
Baseline Plus ML UNT -8.2 (-5.2) 136.0 (+5.0) 78%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNT PV
Overall 19-14 19-18
Conference 9-9 9-9
Home 12-5 10-3
Away 5-7 3-13
Neutral 2-2 6-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.2 74.8
Avg Pts Against 68.2 78.9
Massey -2.0 (#200) -7.2 (#280)
Bradley-Terry -0.81 (#239) -1.10 (#268)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.54 (#265) -1.50 (#260)
RPI 0.444 (#266) 0.460 (#233)
Shooting & Four Factors UNT PV
FG% 39.8% 37.1%
3PT% 31.7% 29.4%
REB / G 35.3 32.2
OREB / G 11.8 11.0
AST / TO 1.06 0.78
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.5% 41.9%
TOV% 16.9% 15.7%
ORB% 32.7% 25.7%
FT Rate 31.7% 28.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.8% 57.7%
Opp TOV% 22.0% 20.1%
DRB% 64.1% 62.7%
Opp FT Rate 36.4% 35.6%

Game Analysis

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