Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -2100 PV +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -10.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -12.2 (-9.2) | 137.0 (+4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -7.1 (-4.1) | 134.3 (+6.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -7.7 (-4.7) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -8.2 (-5.2) | 136.0 (+5.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#200) | -7.2 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#239) | -1.10 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#265) | -1.50 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#266) | 0.460 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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