Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -410 SAC +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +14 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -19.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -14.0 (-0.0) | 139.0 (-17.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -14.9 (-0.9) | 139.4 (-17.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -16.9 (-2.9) | 138.4 (-16.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -15.9 (-1.9) | 139.8 (-17.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 83.6 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#96) | -7.7 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#49) | -1.19 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#48) | -2.04 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#81) | 0.466 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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