Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -4000 UND +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +37 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -14.6 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -12.2 (+24.8) | 140.3 (+6.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -14.1 (+22.9) | 137.1 (+9.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -13.7 (+23.3) | 137.6 (+9.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -13.3 (+23.7) | 140.2 (+6.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 16-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#129) | -6.4 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#223) | -1.19 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#194) | -2.12 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#243) | 0.409 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 38.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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