Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -800 STBK +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -10.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -11.3 (-14.3) | 137.3 (+1.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -8.4 (-11.4) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -8.8 (-11.8) | 133.7 (+5.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -9.1 (-12.1) | 134.6 (+4.4) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#118) | -1.8 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#59) | 0.38 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#89) | 0.52 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#131) | 0.462 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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