Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -750 CARK +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +23 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -17.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -15.5 (+7.5) | 141.0 (-4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -15.6 (+7.4) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -15.8 (+7.2) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -16.6 (+6.4) | 141.1 (-4.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#107) | -7.5 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#142) | -2.09 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#163) | -3.52 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#211) | 0.414 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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