Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -1800 WCU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +20 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -24.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -22.2 (-2.2) | 152.7 (+13.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -19.3 (+0.7) | 152.2 (+13.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -20.5 (-0.5) | 153.3 (+12.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -21.5 (-1.5) | 153.2 (+12.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2023 | HPU 97 – 71 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#57) | -8.9 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#73) | -0.40 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#95) | -0.52 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#49) | 0.471 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.04 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 11.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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