Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -265 ME +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | ME -0.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -2.1 (+1.9) | 134.9 (-8.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -1.8 (+2.2) | 133.0 (-7.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.3 (+3.7) | 133.8 (-7.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.1 (+1.9) | 134.8 (-8.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#299) | -7.9 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#306) | -3.76 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#242) | -5.56 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#314) | 0.318 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 35.1% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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