Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -4000 VMI +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +25 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -27.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (-27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -23.8 (+1.2) | 151.5 (-12.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -21.8 (+3.2) | 153.5 (-14.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -26.6 (-1.6) | 153.4 (-14.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -26.0 (-1.0) | 152.5 (-13.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-17 |
| Home | 14-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#76) | -14.0 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#22) | -1.56 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.68 (#19) | -2.22 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#34) | 0.442 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 45.1% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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