Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Pinnacle Bank Arena · November 29, 2025
Betting Lines
O/U 157.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total NEB win
Actual NEB +9 135 Won
Massey NEB -20.2 (-11.2)
Massey Totals 160.8 (-25.8)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML NEB -21.4 (-12.4) 156.0 (-21.0) 89%
Baseline Tuned ML NEB -15.9 (-6.9) 150.6 (-15.6) 88%
Baseline ML NEB -16.1 (-7.1) 152.0 (-17.0) 86%
Baseline Plus ML NEB -17.6 (-8.6) 153.4 (-18.4) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NEB UPST
Overall 28-7 13-19
Conference 15-5 5-11
Home 16-2 10-5
Away 7-3 3-13
Neutral 5-2 0-1
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.0 71.0
Avg Pts Against 66.1 75.7
Massey 11.6 (#46) -3.0 (#222)
Bradley-Terry 3.92 (#6) -0.43 (#218)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.27 (#11) -2.37 (#302)
RPI 0.698 (#5) 0.467 (#220)
Shooting & Four Factors NEB UPST
FG% 48.9% 44.2%
3PT% 35.7% 29.3%
REB / G 37.6 33.8
OREB / G 9.4 11.2
AST / TO 1.99 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.2% 49.4%
TOV% 14.0% 19.3%
ORB% 27.0% 30.2%
FT Rate 21.9% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.5% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 17.1%
DRB% 70.6% 61.5%
Opp FT Rate 16.5% 30.0%

Game Analysis

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