Betting Lines
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -20.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -21.4 (-12.4) | 156.0 (-21.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -15.9 (-6.9) | 150.6 (-15.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -16.1 (-7.1) | 152.0 (-17.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -17.6 (-8.6) | 153.4 (-18.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#46) | -3.0 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.92 (#6) | -0.43 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.27 (#11) | -2.37 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.698 (#5) | 0.467 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.99 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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