Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -185 SELA +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -6.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -4.9 (-8.9) | 131.2 (+2.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -5.7 (-9.7) | 132.7 (+1.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.1 (-8.1) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -5.7 (-9.7) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 6-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#174) | -6.7 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#161) | -1.94 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#178) | -3.36 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#126) | 0.403 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 21.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 36.5% |
Game Analysis
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