Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NWST +150 SOU -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | NWST -1.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 180.4 (-32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -4.3 (-6.3) | 159.5 (-11.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -2.4 (-4.4) | 159.7 (-11.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -1.8 (-3.8) | 162.2 (-14.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -2.6 (-4.6) | 160.2 (-12.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#319) | -5.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#337) | -2.03 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.03 (#333) | -3.32 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.343 (#349) | 0.366 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 25.4 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 57.9% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.3% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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