Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB +130 SEA -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SEA -8.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -3.1 (+6.1) | 140.8 (+4.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -4.4 (+7.4) | 144.6 (+0.4) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -4.9 (+7.9) | 146.3 (-1.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -4.3 (+7.3) | 144.6 (+0.4) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#200) | 6.5 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#171) | 1.32 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#192) | 2.31 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#168) | 0.544 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 60.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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